Bitcoin Price Forecast

How the forecast works

Each projection is a long-term trend multiplied by a cycle multiplier. Pick the trend in the scenario settings: the power law, a slower post-2018 fit, or an adoption S-curve capped by global wealth. Floor and ceiling sit at 0.42× and 3× the trend.

The 4-year cycle

Bitcoin has peaked about 18 months after each halving and bottomed about 12 months after each peak. Peaks and bottoms are measured as price ÷ power-law fair value, not dollar price, so their dates can differ from dollar highs and lows.

Why the S-curve

The S-curve caps Bitcoin at a final share of global wealth, starting near –. Price is wealth × share ÷ usable coins.

Wealth data

Historical global wealth comes from the Credit Suisse and UBS Global Wealth Reports, spliced into one series using each edition's reported growth rates, since every edition revises earlier years.

What this is not

This forecast is a range of scenarios, not a prediction. The multipliers are judgment calls drawn from past cycles, and the curves are smoothed. Real prices swing 20–30% within months, and uncertainty compounds the further out you look.